Ulthor Group Intelligence ULTHOR GROUP INTELLIGENCE ALL RESOURCES
Resources — 04

Glossary

The tradecraft vocabulary that appears in our reporting, defined in plain language.

Plain definitions for the terms that appear in our reporting. Written for readers who follow this work without doing it for a living, and kept deliberately short.

TermDefinition
OSINTOpen-source intelligence. Analysis produced from lawfully accessible, publicly available material — records, imagery, broadcasts, publications — rather than from covert collection.
Open sourceIn this field, information anyone may lawfully obtain. It has nothing to do with open-source software licensing, which is a separate use of the same phrase.
Primary sourceThe record itself: a filing, a judgment, an image, a dataset. Preferred over reporting that describes it.
Secondary sourceAn account of a primary source, such as a news report about a court ruling. Useful for direction, weaker as evidence.
CorroborationIndependent confirmation of a claim. Independence means independent origin — twenty outlets repeating one press release is still one source.
ProvenanceThe traceable history of a piece of material: where it came from, who handled it, and whether it is what it appears to be.
AttributionIdentifying who is responsible for an action, or naming who made a claim. Both senses appear in reporting and the distinction matters.
GeolocationEstablishing where an image or video was captured, by matching terrain, buildings, signage, and other fixed features against known references.
ChronolocationEstablishing when material was captured, using shadow angles, weather records, vegetation state, or construction progress.
EXIFMetadata embedded in an image file, such as camera model, timestamp, and sometimes coordinates. Trivially edited or stripped, so treated as an indicator rather than proof.
AISAutomatic Identification System. Position and identity data broadcast by ships, publicly receivable, and widely used to track maritime movement. Can be switched off or spoofed.
ADS-BAutomatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast. The aviation equivalent of AIS, broadcast by aircraft and collected by public receiver networks.
SARSynthetic-aperture radar. Satellite imaging that works through cloud and darkness, valuable where optical imagery is unavailable.
Change detectionComparing imagery of the same location across time to identify construction, movement, damage, or activity.
Confidence levelHow strong the basis for a judgement is — high, moderate, or low. Distinct from how probable the judgement is.
Estimative languageFixed vocabulary for probability, such as “likely” or “very unlikely,” each tied to a stated numeric range so readers and analysts mean the same thing by them.
Analytic lineThe through-argument of an assessment: the conclusion, the evidence it rests on, and the assumptions it depends on.
Key assumptionA proposition taken as true without direct evidence, on which a judgement depends. Stated explicitly so readers can see what would overturn the conclusion.
Structured analytic techniqueA formal method for testing reasoning and reducing bias, such as analysis of competing hypotheses or a key-assumptions check.
Analysis of competing hypothesesA technique that lists all plausible explanations and scores evidence by how well it discriminates between them, rather than by how well it fits a favoured answer.
Red teamingDeliberately arguing the opposing case against a draft assessment to expose weak evidence and unexamined assumptions.
Confirmation biasThe tendency to weigh evidence that supports an existing view more heavily than evidence that undercuts it.
MisinformationFalse information circulated without intent to deceive, often by people who believe it.
DisinformationFalse information created or circulated deliberately to mislead. The difference from misinformation is intent, which is itself an analytic judgement.
Information operationA coordinated effort to shape perception or behaviour through the deliberate spread of selected or fabricated material.
Sock puppetA fake online identity operated to manufacture the appearance of independent support or independent corroboration.
Sanctions designationThe formal listing of a person, entity, or vessel by a government or international body, restricting dealings with them.
Beneficial ownerThe natural person who ultimately owns or controls an entity, as distinct from the nominal shareholder recorded on a filing.

Terms describing how we grade sources and phrase uncertainty are defined in full on the methodology page.